Yahoo - AFP, Denis
BARNETT, October
29, 2018
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Police officers patrol the streets after the far-right candidate Jair Bolsonaro won Brazil's presidential election, in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, on October 28, 2018 (AFP Photo/DANIEL RAMALHO) |
Montevideo
(AFP) - Brazil's Latin American neighbors are bracing for a regional
"Bolsonaro effect" after the far-right leader's crushing victory in
presidential elections.
The
knock-on effect will be felt across the region in foreign policy, trade,
policing and even in how political campaigns are waged, analysts said.
Bolsonaro's
win perpetuates electoral routs for right-wing presidents against leftist governments
hostile to the United States, said Argentine commentator Pablo Seman -- citing
recent victories for Mauricio Macri in Argentina, Sebastian Pinera in Chile and
Mario Abdo Benitez in Paraguay.
"The
US is taking possession of what has been lost in Latin America, in a context of
global struggle with China for natural resources, markets, political support.
There is no place in Latin America where Washington has not regained the
position it lost" in the 2000s, Seman added.
With
President Donald Trump in the White House, "strongmen have the edge"
in US foreign policy, said US analyst Michael Shifter.
Bolsonaro's
triumph however raises fears of a return to authoritarian rule in a region
which has suffered under a string of military dictatorships.
The shift
will be stark, according to Mark Weisbrot of the Center for Economic and Policy
Research in Washington.
"This
is a guy who said the Brazilian dictatorship didn't kill enough people, that
they need to kill another 30,000 people, that the police should be able to kill
suspects, that the left will have a choice of going to jail or leaving the
country.
"Will
he do these things? I think he will implement as many of these threats as he
can get away with," said Weisbrot.
'Not so
extreme'
However,
"the shift towards authoritarian rule may not be as extreme as many
fear," according to Shifter, head of the Inter-American Dialogue think
tank -- because traditional parties in Congress could yet provide checks and
balances.
There could
be a "modest Bolsonaro effect" in neighboring countries, especially
those that experienced military rule, "but each country has its own
particular dynamics that shape its political direction. Any contagion would be
limited."
Ivan
Briscoe, Latin America director of the International Crisis Group, said the
ex-soldier's rise is part of a gradual "winnowing of democracy" in
the region, the most notable examples being Venezuela and Nicaragua.
 |
Police
officers patrol the streets after the far-right candidate Jair Bolsonaro won
Brazil's presidential election, in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, on October 28, 2018
(AFP
Photo/DANIEL RAMALHO)
|
Bolsonaro
wielding power in the volatile social context of Brazil is alarming.
"When
you have a populist authoritarian, militaristic ruler in that context, he isn't
just a laughing stock -- as Trump often is -- he is actually a very serious
challenger to civil rights, and human rights and basic freedoms."
Bolsonaro
has much in common with Mexico's president-elect Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador,
said Briscoe.
"It's
the appeal of the strong leader, it's the slightly vague political program,
it's the promise of 'trust me, I will do the job' - it's the style. So we might
see similar campaigning in Latin America."
Bolsonaro's trade choices
Bolsonaro
has vowed to implement free-market reforms in the region's biggest economy and
recently accused China -- its largest trading partner -- of "buying
Brazil."
Beijing is
set to build on its aggressive strategy in the region in recent years, analysts
agree, with a style that appeals to Latin American leaders.
"It
provides much more direct investment, loans, and aid to developing countries
than the US does, and has a policy of non-interference in the internal affairs
of the recipients," Weisbrot pointed out.
Regardless
of his China trade policy, it's an anxious moment for the struggling regional
MERCOSUR bloc -- Brazil, Argentina, Uruguay and Paraguay.
"If
Bolsonaro follows through on his idea of allowing members to pursue bilateral
trade agreements, and not as a bloc, that would be a big blow," noted
Shifter.
According
to Weisbrot, Bolsonaro will "follow Macri and the other right-wing
governments in pursuing commercial policies that the Trump administration
favors."
Briscoe
agrees that a leader with a "Brazil First" approach "is possibly
not going to do wonders for MERCOSUR."
Worst
case scenario
Regardless
of Bolsonaro's appeal to the markets, Shifter says that based on his campaign
rhetoric and background, we can expect "considerable erosion of democratic
norms and institutions".
That means
Bolsonaro supporting "right-wing and fascist movements everywhere, and
also (being) a strong supporter of the Trump administration's foreign policy,
which seeks to get rid of the remaining left governments," said Weisbrot.
The worst
case scenario is that he could become South America's answer to the Philippine
President Rodrigo Duterte, whose war on drugs has been credited with killing
some 20,000 people since July 2016.
In a
country where police killings number around 5,000 a year, "if Bolsonaro
and all his deputies are saying 'the gloves are off, you can do what you want,
we'll protect you, the courts won't prosecute you,' the signal which will be
given in that context could lead to appalling violence," said Briscoe.
"In
Brazil it really is a risk."