2018: A big year for Latin America elections

Yahoo – AFP, Tupac POINTU, 29 December 2017

The election in Chile of conservative Sebastian Pinera December 17 is part
of a tilt to the right in Latin American politics

Next year will be a big election year for Latin America, a region where democracy in many countries is only decades young, and where the shadow of corruption stretches wide and long.

Half of the population across the region is being called to cast ballots.

Here are the main points of note concerning the polls in regional economic heavyweights Brazil and Mexico, as well a newly pacified Colombia and troubled Venezuela.

Corruption: the roots of wrath

The Odebrecht scandal, an affair of tentacular graft involving a Brazilian construction firm that is alleged to have paid millions of dollars in bribes to Latin American government officials to secure juicy public contracts, has rocked the region.

It has led to Ecuador's vice president being imprisoned for six years, and last week nearly resulted in Peru's president being impeached.

But the scandal is just part of a much bigger picture of corruption, according to Gaspard Estrada, director of an Observatory of Latin America at Paris's Sciences-Po institute.

A corruption scandal involving Brazilian contractor Odebrecht is roiling politics in
Latin American countries like Peru where President Pedro Pablo Kuczynchi barely
escaped impeachment over graft allegations

"Corruption phenomena are deeply rooted in the region, and persist," he said.

"This will have an impact on the next political cycle," said Fiona Mackie, in charge of Latin America for The Economist Intelligence Unit. The Odebrecht scandal, she added, "is really shaking up the political scene."

The disheartening multiple cases of embezzlement and personal enrichment by officials in region has engendered "an impatience now in the electors, because they are so fed up," Mackie said.

"Elections in Brazil, Colombia, and Mexico will be dominated by voter anger against the political establishment and demand for change, making them hard to predict and opening up room for negative surprises," the Eurasia consulting firm said in a recent report.

"Candidates that better capture this sentiment will be the most competitive, and the risk of negative surprises is high," as attested to by an unexpected surge for the left in a recent Chilean presidential election, the report said.

That "should serve as a reminder not to underestimate voter frustration," it said.

Outsiders like right-wing soldier-turned-politician Jair Bolsonaro in Brazil have 

gotten a lift from a wave of public disgust with corruption-tainted political elites

A boon for outsiders

The electoral landscape in Latin America in 2018 is dotted with an increasing number of candidates from outside the political system.

This can be put down to public disgust over the many instances of graft that has "disqualified the traditional political class," Estrada said.

He deplored a regional "leadership crisis" and feared political outsiders would fuel discourse that undermines democracy, as in Brazil where an extreme-right soldier-turned-politician, Jair Bolsonaro, has emerged as a contender.

Some traditional politicians were presenting themselves as outsiders "because that's a good thing to do in term of popularity, but they are insiders," Mackie said.

"An outsider needs to ally with a party that has a machinery. You need to have a political movement behind you," she added.

Eurasia said Mexico "is headed towards its most uncertain and consequential elections in decades on 1 July."

A leftwing candidate, Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, appears best placed for a win right now, it said.

A former mayor of Mexico City, Lopez Obrador is aiming for the presidency after a long political career. He has spurned the traditional leftwing PRD party to start the Movement for National Regeneration, known as Morena.

Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro, seen here at an event in Cuba this month,
 leads the country with the region's worst economic crisis but analysts predict he will
win re-election next year in a tightly controlled process

Tilt to the right

The victory of conservative billionaire Sebastian Pinera as president-elect in Chile after a mid-December runoff has confirmed a general right-leaning tilt to the region, building on the stewardship of Mauricio Macri in Argentina, Michel Temer in Brazil and Pedro Pablo Kuczynski in Peru.

But for Estrada, "it's not really a question of left or right -- it's just the government that had been in place, on the left, had flagged, which encouraged the parties on the right. What happened was a phenomenon of alternation."

More than political labels, 2018 will be decided by economic issues "because the economy is doing badly," he said.

"With a few notable exceptions, the policy and economic outlook for Latin America looks set to continue improving in 2018," Eurasia's report said.

But political dynamics could determine whether that "positive trend slows or, in some countries, is derailed," it said.

Eurasia predicted that in Venezuela, the Latin American country with the most severe economic problems, President Nicolas Maduro "will likely remain in office and win the presidential election in a tightly controlled process."

But, it added: "The government will also likely stumble into default, further complicating an already bleak economic outlook."

Half of the population across Latin America will be called to cast ballots in 2018 https://t.co/p2AqV75uaR pic.twitter.com/YxUgh4vHCb

— AFP news agency (@AFP) December 30, 2017

Mayas mark the 21th anniversary of the end of the civil war in Guatemala, praying for a "true peace" after a conflict that left more than 200,000 dead and missing between 1960 and 1996

Mayas mark the 21th anniversary of the end of the civil war in Guatemala, praying for a "true peace" after a conflict that left more than 200,000 dead and missing between 1960 and 1996 pic.twitter.com/zFxQP86ppH

— AFP news agency (@AFP) December 30, 2017

'Forgive me,' ex-Peru leader Fujimori says after pardon protests

Yahoo – AFP, Carlos MANDUJANO, Francisco JARA, 26 December 2017

Protesters in Lima holding posters showing the victims of ex-Peruvian president
Alberto Fujimori, who was granted a pardon by current President Pedro Pablo
Kuczynski over Christmas

Peru's ailing former leader Alberto Fujimori on Tuesday asked the public for forgiveness, two days after receiving a presidential pardon that sparked street protests.

"I am aware that the results of my government were well received on one side, but I admit that I have let down other compatriots, and I ask them to forgive me with all my heart," Fujimori said in a Facebook video filmed from his hospital bed.

The 79-year-old had been serving a 25-year sentence for corruption and human rights abuses committed during his time in office from 1990 to 2000.

He was transferred from prison to a hospital on Saturday after suffering from low blood pressure and an irregular heartbeat, the latest in a string of hospitalizations.

In the video, Fujimori lay propped up on a hospital bed wearing a white gown, with a blood pressure cuff on his right arm and another monitor clasped to his left index finger. He talked over the constant background beeping of a monitoring device.

He said the pardon "took me by surprise" and provoked "a mix of feelings -- great joy and sorrow."

President Pedro Pablo Kuczynski ordered the pardon of Fujimori and seven other prisoners Sunday on humanitarian grounds, placing himself in the middle of a political crisis just days after he avoided impeachment.

A supporter of Peru's ex-president Alberto Fujimori gathers with others outside 

the Lima hospital where he was admitted, before being pardoned

The move set off street protests in Lima, and police fired tear gas and clashed with demonstrators who marched Monday against the pardon and demanding that Kuczynski step down.

The president defended his decision in a televised message to the nation.

"I am convinced that those of us who feel democratic should not allow Alberto Fujimori to die in prison, because justice is not revenge," Kuczynski said in his address Monday night.

"It is about the health and chances of life of a former president of Peru who, having committed excesses and grave errors, was sentenced and has already completed 12 years" in prison, he said.

Anti-riot police deployed to prevent demonstrators from heading to the clinic where Fujimori is hospitalized, firing tear gas canisters and erecting barricades to disperse them.

"Out, out PPK! Out, out PPK!" demonstrators chanted in reference to the current president, who had promised during his electoral campaign last year that he would not free Fujimori.

"Fujimori, murderer and thief. No to the pardon!" read a sign held by the protesters, some of whom also carried a giant Peruvian flag.

Relatives of victims of Fujimori's brutal rule took part in the march.

"We are here as relatives to reject this illegal pardon, because it does not correspond to the gravity of the crimes," Gisella Ortiz, from a group of victims' families, told reporters.

Peru's president Alberto Fujimori hands a weapon to a man in 1991 for use in

the battle against the Shining Path leftist rebels

A 'vulgar' process

The pardon from Kuczynski came after Fujimori's son Kenji drained votes away from a parliamentary bid Thursday to impeach Kuczynski on suspicion of corruption, sparking speculation the pardon was political.

"The president's word is totally devalued and he will not be supported again," political analyst Arturo Maldonado told El Comercio newspaper.

"Instead of reaffirming that in a state of law there is no special treatment for anyone, the idea that the liberation was a vulgar political negotiation in exchange for keeping Pedro Pablo Kuczynski in power will remain forever."

A doctor at the Centenario Clinic, Alejandro Aguinaga, told reporters that Fujimori's condition was "delicate" and there was no prospect of his leaving soon from the facility where he is in intensive care.

The former leader has spent more than a decade imprisoned for ruthlessly cracking down on political rivals and for ordering dozens of murders and overseeing other brutal tactics.

Despite his conviction for human rights abuses, however, Fujimori retains a level of popularity in Peru for having defeated left-wing guerrillas and for stabilizing the economy after a period of crisis.

That dichotomy has come to the fore with the pardon: dozens of supporters have gathered in front of the hospital caring for him, while opponents demonstrated in Lima against him.

Fujimori's daughter Keiko, a congresswoman who was narrowly beaten to the presidency by Kuczynski in elections last year, hailed her father's pardon as "a great day for my family and for Fujimorists -- finally my father is free."

Alberto Fujimori has been pardoned, but he wants forgiveness. The bedridden former president of Peru, who ruthlessly cracked down on opponents during his tenure, addressed the public following protests in response to him being pardoned pic.twitter.com/zwVL0WTpds

— AFP news agency (@AFP) December 26, 2017

Biography of ex-president Alberto Fujimori, pardoned for human rights and corruption charges pic.twitter.com/iZNoe70bq1

— AFP news agency (@AFP) December 27, 2017

Brazilian president's pardons ignite corruption row

Yahoo – AFP, 23 December 2017

Brazilian president's pardons ignite corruption row

President Michel Temer was accused Saturday of handing Brazilians convicted of corruption a get out of jail card with changes to the traditional collective Christmas pardon.

Temer, who has been charged with corruption himself, issued the annual decree Friday, expanding the categories of prisoners eligible for early release.

The main shift was to lift the previous exclusion on all those serving sentences of more than 12 years. Under Temer's changes, the length of sentence no longer matters and a prisoner also needs only to have served 20 percent of the sentence to qualify, rather than 25 percent as under the previous rules.

"It's a Christmas party for the corrupt," lashed out Deltan Dallagnol, one of the chief prosecutors in operation "Car Wash," as the biggest anti-corruption probe in Brazilian history is known.

"Practice corruption with only 20 percent of the consequences," he said on Facebook.

Dallagnol referred to the case of construction tycoon Marcelo Odebrecht who was released this week into house arrest as part of a steep reduction of his sentence in exchange for providing devastating testimony to "Car Wash" investigators.

Originally, Odebrecht had been sentenced to more than 19 years in prison, but saw that cut to 10 years, with only two and a half behind bars and a transfer now to his luxury Sao Paulo house.

His testimony and that of fellow company executives was used to go after scores of politicians who allegedly took bribes.

Temer's decree will undermine prosecutors' bargaining power in such cases, Dallagnol said.

"If Marcelo Odebrecht could have seen this Christmas pardon from President Temer, he'd never have struck a plea bargain!" Dallagnol tweeted.

"Open season for corruption continues. They defraud bids. They embezzle from health, education and security! Come, steal, and head off!! That's the message."

Accused of corruption, Temer is the first sitting president to face criminal charges. Congress, where many members are also facing corruption probes, twice voted against putting him on trial.

Responding to the outcry, Justice Minister Torquato Jardim held a press conference in the capital Brasilia Saturday, telling journalists that Temer's expansion of the pardons was done for completely different reasons.

"The prisons are overcrowded. That is a reality we cannot ignore. Those who will be let out did not commit heinous crimes and are not considered serious threats," the Correio Braziliense newspaper quoted him as saying. 

Raul Castro to step down as Cuba's president in April 2018

Yahoo – AFP, December 21, 2017

Cuban President Raul Castro (R) will stay on a couple of months later than
planned, stepping down in April 2018 (AFP Photo)

Havana (AFP) - Cuban President Raul Castro will step down in April 2018 straight after his successor is chosen by a top governing council, according to a vote Thursday in the island state's National Assembly.

The vote by lawmakers pushed back the date of general elections, which were initially to be held at the end of February. The delay was necessary due to disruption caused by Hurricane Irma, which ravaged much of Cuba in September.

It means that Castro, 86, will stay on a couple of months later than planned.

The modification to Cuba's election calendar means general elections choosing the National Assembly's 600 members will be moved to a date yet to be decided.

Cuba's president is not directly elected by the people, but by the Council of State which is chosen by the National Assembly.

The lawmakers' election of the Council of State posts -- including that of its president, who will also be the president of Cuba, replacing Raul Castro -- was set for April 19.

The National Assembly session deciding these changes was closed to international media.

Chile swings back to right as billionaire returns to power

Yahoo – AFP, Paulina ABRAMOVICH, 18 December 2017

El chileno Sebastian Piñera (C), celebra junto a su familia y partidarios la victoria
presidencial en el exterior de un hotel de Santiago de Chile, el 17 de diciembre de 2017

Chile's political landscape once again swung back from left to right, after billionaire businessman Sebastian Pinera beat an independent backed by outgoing center-leftist President Michelle Bachelet.

The latest swing of the political pendulum came as Pinera, who ran the South American copper giant from 2010-2014, beat Alejandro Guillier, a 64-year-old TV presenter turned senator who ran as an independent backed by Bachelet.

Bachelet and Pinera had tag-teamed the presidency since she first took office in 2006, but the constitution prohibited her from seeking a third term.

Pinera, 68, won 54 percent of the vote in Sunday's run-off, a resounding win after a shaky performance in the first round of voting in November.

"We have suffered a tough defeat," Guillier said after conceding. He had called for the anti-Pinera opposition to unite after the first round and defend reforms launched by Bachelet, a center-left leader.

Guillier failed, however, to rally far-left supporters who had voted for journalist Beatriz Sanchez in the first round, when she won 20 percent of the vote to his 22 percent.

Pinera meanwhile managed to woo an additional 1.4 million voters after his lackluster 37 percent in the first round, as Chileans appeared to have seen him as a safe pair of hands at a time when GDP growth has been sluggish in comparison with previous years.

"Pinera's triumph by the margin he achieved was surprising," said political analyst Guillermo Holzmann.

Pinera, whose next four-year term will begin in March 2018, had breakfast on Monday with Bachelet at his house, in line with the country's political tradition.

Pragmatic vote

"For voters, this wasn't an ideological choice between right and left," said Holzmann. "It was a pragmatic vote. They voted for whoever gave them the greatest sense of certainty."

Pinera managed to win 13 out of the country's 15 regions, including Antofagasta, where Guillier serves as senator.

Biografía del expresidente chileno Sebastián Piñera, ganador 

del balotaje de las elecciones presidenciales

He succeeded in capturing the votes of those fearful of a swing further to the left, comparing Guillier to Venezuela's Socialist leader Nicolas Maduro.

Riding a wave of elections in recent years that have seen leftists ousted in Argentina, Brazil and Peru, Pinera also tapped into a deeply conservative tranche of Chilean society upset at Bachelet's support for same-sex marriage and abortion.

At the same time, he performed a U-turn by promising to maintain Bachelet's policy of free university education, despite having earlier declared "free things mean less commitment."

"I am going to be a unity president, a president for all Chileans and a president for work... for progress, and of course for the middle class and all the regions of our country," a joyful Pinera told a victory rally in central Santiago.

"Chile is saved, Chile is saved!", chanted a thousand or so supporters who had gathered to celebrate the second victory of the business magnate, whose wealth is estimated at around $2.7 billion.

"It was the best thing that could happen to us," said 43-year-old security guard Mauricio Vega. "We lived better under Pinera and now we will return to a better life, wand have work."

That confidence was reflected in Chile's ISPA stock market, which opened Monday 6.2 percent higher and within minutes had gained 7.55 percent, nudging the 5,600 mark.

Pinera has outlined an ambitious program that includes adding Chile to the list of developed countries by the year 2025, creating 700,000 jobs and stabilizing the public debt, which is currently at 23.8 percent of GDP.

He has also vowed to lower the corporate tax rate from 27 percent to 25 percent and reform the pension system.

The future of reforms

That optimism was counterbalanced by concerns among opposition supporters over the future of Bachelet's social reforms.

"I'm furious and worried. Those who were supposed to vote didn't," said Maria Salome, a 71-year-old street vendor. "I'm really angry because they are getting what they want, and the right wants a people with no education so it is easier for them to do whatever they want with us."

But the make-up of the new Congress means that Pinera will need to cut deals with the new opposition. His coalition has 55 seats in the 155-member Chamber of Deputies. The left is split into two factions -- the Broad Front, a far-left grouping, has 20 seats, while the New Majority has 43.

"We have to be more critical of ourselves. We have suffered a tough defeat," said Guillier. "And there are more lessons to be learned in a defeat -- we have to lift our spirits and get out there and defend the reforms that we believe in."

Vatican returns shrunken 'warrior' head to Ecuador

Yahoo – AFP, 16 December 2017

It is very rare for a historical artifact to be returned by the Vatican museums,
which boast one of the largest collections of art and archaeology in the world

The Vatican museum has returned a shrunken head to Ecuador, relinquishing the wizened cranium of an Amazon warrior nearly 100 years after it was taken by a missionary.

The grisly body part -- which belonged to the Shuar indigenous people -- was handed over during Ecuadorian President Lenin Moreno's visit to Pope Francis on Saturday after months of negotiations, the Vatican said.

It is very rare for a historical artifact to be returned by the Vatican museums, which boast one of the largest collections of art and archaeology in the world.

The fist-sized capitulum, which never went on show, is believed to have been a war trophy for the Shuar, who mummified and kept the heads of their warrior enemies, as well as their heroes.

The Shuar are still one of the most important ethnic groups in the Amazon region. In recent years they have hit the headlines for attempting to resist government-authorised large-scale mining on land they claim as their own.

They used to be best known in the West for their shrunken heads -- called "tsantsa".

Removing the skull, boiling the flesh then sowing up the eyes, nose and mouth is believed to have trapped avenging souls inside, or stored the wisdom of their elders.

The head, brought to the Vatican by a missionary in 1925, will be given to the Pumapungo ethnographic museum in Cuenca.

Venezuelan leader says no to opposition in presidential race

Yahoo – AFP, 11 December 2017

Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro plans to seek reelection in the 2018
 presidential race, in which he said leading opposition parties will not be allowed \
to participate

Venezuela's President Nicolas Maduro announced Sunday that leading opposition parties will be barred from taking part in next year's presidential vote after they boycotted mayoral polls, in a move set to further consolidate his grip on power.

That includes the groups of key figures who have led street protests against his rule such as Henrique Capriles, Leopoldo Lopez and others, Maduro told reporters after casting his vote in the municipal polls.

"That's what the National Constituent Assembly set out," he said, referring to a controversial Maduro-allied special powers legislature whose legitimacy has been questioned by many in the international community.

"If they don't want elections, what are they doing? What's the alternative? (Civil) war?" the president asked, visibly angry.

While municipal elections were under way across the country, Maduro clearly had his mind on the 2018 presidential race, in which he plans to seek reelection despite an approval rating of around 30 percent.

Crisis-weary voters meanwhile appeared to be staying away in droves from mayoral elections that the opposition is already boycotting.

Maduro said his party won more than 300 of Venezuela's 355 mayoral races. And the president insisted that 9.3 million people voted, which he called a record for a municipal vote.

In terms of politics, the local election stakes might seem low.

Yet a failure in municipal votes could be seen by many a sign the government had lost the support of the massive lower-income base it relies on to stay in power and in charge of the state-led economy.

Luis Emilio Rondon, a member of the electoral board, said that there were some irregularities involving pro-government candidates who are running some polling stations. He did not immediately say where, or address the extent of the issue.

But voting "cannot be restricted, obligatory, or supervised by people with political interests" therein, Rondon told reporters.

People look for their names on electoral rolls before voting in Venezuelan

municipal elections that were boycotted by leading opposition parties

Lack of serious challenge

He also said he had received reports that in some polling stations run by the ruling PSUV, officials were making sure that those who have a special social benefits card get out to cast their votes.

He said some of these voters' "Fatherland Card," an electronic card that helps them get scarce food and medicine, were being scanned.

"There has been some confusion on voters' part about whether they have to go to the polls with their regular ID card and the Fatherland Card. This is not needed to vote. You only need your regular national ID," he stressed.

These are the last elections before presidential voting scheduled for late next year, in which Maduro says he will seek another term. Some analysts think they will be moved up to the early months of 2018.

The lack of a serious challenge Sunday to Maduro-aligned candidates led to skepticism in the main cities of Caracas, Maracaibo and San Cristobal.

Maduro's ruling socialist party was aided by the refusal of the three main parties in the opposition coalition Democratic Union Roundtable (MUD) to participate, though smaller parties decided to contest the election.

Victor Torres, a chauffeur in Maracaibo, said the election will do nothing to resolve what he considers to be the country's biggest woe: hyperinflation, estimated at 2,000 percent this year.

"The other day I went to buy a banana. In the morning it cost 1,900 bolivares and in the afternoon, 3,000. You can't live this way. I am disappointed with politicians," said Torres.

Yon Goicoechea was contesting the election against the wishes of his party because he says the opposition must "defend" its political space.

Goicoechea, who is running for mayor in a Caracas municipality, said the government "will try to steal the vote, but we will not give it away."

The balloting station where the president himself votes, in a poor area of Caracas called Catia, also looked deserted, an AFP reporter there said.

"Not voting is a mistake. Instead of moving forward, we are going backwards the way crabs do," said Carmen Leon, 78, after casting her ballot in Chacao, which has been home to many opposition leaders.